(CN) — In a historic moment, the far-right Alternative for Germany came in first and second in two regional state elections on Sunday in eastern Germany, a result that was expected but nonetheless shocking.
In the state of Thuringia, the Alternative for Germany came in first with 32.8% of the vote and in the neighboring state of Saxony it came in second with 30.6% of the ballot, edged out by the mainstream conservatives, the Christian Democrats. The Christian Democrats were a distant second in Thuringia with 23% of the vote.
It was the first time since the end of the Nazi regime that a far-right party won a regional state election in Germany. The AfD, as the party is known by its German initials, has been steadily gaining in popularity across Germany in recent years as backlash grows against immigration and pro-green policies.
The party is particularly strong in poorer former communist eastern Germany, which has hemorrhaged population and suffered high unemployment since German reunification in 1990.
Despite winning, the AfD is not expected to form the next government in either Thuringia or Saxony because Germany’s other political forces have so far refused to enter coalitions with the party over its radical-right stances. Still, the AfD may exert a lot of power in Thuringia, where the winner of elections is typically allowed to appoint the president of the state parliament. Also, it will have enough seats to possibly block legislation and judicial appointments.
The elections were a disaster for Germany’s ruling parties at the national level — the center-left Social Democrats, Greens and pro-business Free Democrats.
With the economy on the rocks, the three-way coalition is mired in difficulties and become very unpopular, though political analysts do not expect the national government to implode because of Sunday’s poor results. Instead, the government in Berlin is expected to stagger on until new national elections in September 2025. The Christian Democrats, the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel that tends to pick up support from older and more prosperous voters, are ahead in polls and they are poised to lead the next government.
In Sunday’s ballots, the Social Democrats barely managed to get over the 5% threshold needed to get seats in both regional parliaments and the Greens only squeaked by in Saxony. The Free Democrats were not a factor in either state.
“The German political landscape was hit by the expected shake-up, adding to the already existing tensions of the federal government,” said Carsten Brzeski, a global analyst for the ING Group, a Dutch multinational bank, in a briefing note.
He said the chance of snap elections before next September has increased, but most likely “none of the three coalition partners will pull the plug” because they have little to gain from early elections.
On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the leader of the Social Democrats, called the election results “bitter.”
He called on “all democratic parties” to keep the AfD and its “right-wing extremists” out of power.
“Our country cannot and must not become accustomed to this,” Scholz said, as reported by news agencies. “The AfD damages our country. It weakens the economy, divides society and ruins our country’s reputation.”
The AfD is viewed by many Germans and institutions as a danger to democracy due to its links to far-right groups, demands for the mass deportation of refugees, nationalistic stances and calls to reopen relations with Russia. The party is under investigation for extremism and there even have been calls to ban it.
The AfD’s success in Thuringia served as vindication for Björn Höcke, the party’s leader in the state and one of its most radical figures. Höcke has repeatedly used Nazi rhetoric and he was found guilty in court twice this year for using a banned Nazi slogan at his campaign events.
The party attracts many of its supporters from younger working-class males who are fed up with established parties and feel like they haven’t prospered. With its harsh anti-migrant rhetoric, the party saw its support swell after Merkel allowed about 1 million refugees enter Germany in 2015 following the outbreak of civil war in Syria.
Alice Weidel, the national co-leader of the AfD, called the elections “a requiem” for the ruling coalition in Berlin.
“It is a historic success for us,” Weidel said.
The AfD demanded a chance at forming governments in Thuringia and Saxony, but its only obvious partner are the Christian Democrats, who aren’t about to take that risk.
“One thing is very clear: The will of the voters is that there should be a change in policy,” Tino Chrupalla, an AfD national co-leader, told public broadcaster ZDF. “We have a clear mandate to govern in Thuringia.”
Instead, the Christian Democrats in both Saxony and Thuringia are contemplating what only recently might have seemed unthinkable: forming coalitions with far-left forces.
“It won’t be easy, it will take time, but it is possible,” Michael Kretschmer, Saxony’s Christian Democratic prime minister, said on public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk about working with far-left forces.
In both states, a new party led by popular far-left politician Sahra Wagenknecht came in third and picked up enough votes to become a formidable force. Wagenknecht split off from the Left party, in large part because of her different views about Russia and immigration. Wagenknecht favors repairing ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, ending support for Ukraine’s war effort and enforcing tighter immigration rules. The Christian Democrats said they might be able to find agreement with her party on immigration.
With Wagenknecht’s alliance pulling in so many left-wing voters, the Left saw its vote share shrink by about half in both Thuringia and Saxony. It even failed to cross the 5% threshold in Saxony, leaving it without any parliamentarians there.
Turnout was at about 74% in both states with more than 4.5 million people casting votes.
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.