(CN) — The U.S. economy throttled back slightly in October with employment up just 12,000 jobs after an unexpectedly robust gain of 254,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. The lackluster numbers could be a worrisome sign for Democrats but helpful news for Republicans heading into Tuesday’s presidential election, where the state of the economy is a major concern for voters.
October’s nonfarm payroll employment, which was essentially unchanged according to a report released Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was lower than economists had predicted. Employment continued to grow in health care and government while temporary help services lost jobs and manufacturing employment was down due to strike activity, according to the Labor Department report.
October’s flat jobs report comes after an average monthly gain of 194,000 over the prior 12 months, according to the Labor Department.
August’s nonfarm payroll employment was revised down by 81,000 jobs — from an increase of 159,000 — and September’s numbers were revised down by 31,000 — from an increase of 254,000 — or a total of 112,000 fewer jobs gained than previously reported.
It is not clear how much October’s numbers were affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton. Helene struck Florida’s Gulf Coast Sept. 26, before the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys of households and industries. Milton hit Florida on Oct. 9, during both surveys.
“It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events,” the Labor Department wrote in a release. “There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey.”
Still, the impact from the hurricanes appears to be about what was expected, according to an analysis by Bradley Saunders, North American economist for Capital Economics. He said the hurricanes were a “substantial hit” as the Labor Department’s household survey showed 512,000 people reported being unable to work due to the weather, compared to a historical average of 32,000.
“Meanwhile, the impact on employment from the ongoing strike at Boeing was captured in the 46,000 fall in manufacturing employment last month (38,000 of which was in non-autos transportation equipment manufacturing),” Saunders said. “All things considered, we suspect the upper limit for the disruptions hit was around 90,000, which means stripping them out, payrolls would only have increased by an underwhelming 102,000.”