MARSEILLE, France (CN) — After a ruling that rocked France, both allies and adversaries of freshly convicted extreme-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen are raging: The top candidate for the next presidential election is effectively out of the race.
Many believe the sentence was undemocratic and that her eligibility should be in the hands of French voters rather than a judge.
On Monday, the Paris criminal court found Le Pen guilty of embezzling public funds, and sentenced her to four years in prison, two suspended and two to be served with an ankle bracelet at home; she was also hit with a 100,000 euro ($108,000) fine. But the biggest shock was the five-year term of ineligibility to run for office, effective immediately.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon — the controversial head of the hard-left France Unbowed — wrote on X, “The decision to remove an elected official should be up to the people.”
His comments drew criticism from the more moderate left, but echoed the sentiment of far-right leaders in France and around the world.
U.S. President Donald Trump said that Le Pen’s case sounds like the United States, apparently linking it to his own legal troubles. He called the ruling “a very big deal.”
Trump’s billionaire adviser Elon Musk, who has been backing far-right parties across Europe, said “When the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents … This is their standard playbook throughout the world.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán posted “Je suis Marine!” or “I am Marine,” on X. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also chimed in, saying that the decision took away the representation of millions of citizens.
Le Pen has been leading in the polls for the 2027 presidential election. With President Emmanuel Macron barred from running because of term limits, the ruling has ushered in a new era of uncertainty for the country’s political landscape.
Experts wonder if the far-right movement could gain strength across France, since voters are rallying behind Le Pen. Nationwide demonstrations against the verdict are planned for the weekend, though it’s unclear how many people might attend.
Pierre Allorant, a historian and political scientist at the University of Orléans, told Courthouse News that the National Rally will frame this case as a “judicial coup,” but he isn’t sure how much strength such a movement could gain.
Le Pen said she will appeal the verdict. But even if she succeeds, the timing for a presidential run would be tight — France’s next elections are in 2027, and the appeals process could take years. The ban on running remains in effect unless overturned.
Jordan Bardella, her 29-year-old protégé and president of the National Rally, is the likely candidate if Le Pen remains ineligible. He has been credited for helping to normalize a party that was long taboo in France, largely due to Marine Le Pen’s father, the late Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was overtly antisemitic and constantly tied up in controversies.
But Le Pen is not showing signs of defeat or any intention to back down from a run.
“Jordan Bardella is a tremendous asset for the movement,” she told the French channel TF1 in her first interview after the ruling. “I hope we won’t have to use this asset sooner than necessary.”
Le Pen also said she would not withdraw from French political life. She called the ruling a practice reserved for authoritarian regimes.
Allorant cautions that if Bardella runs — although he’s a darling of the French extreme-right, and has a good shot at winning the election — there’s a risk that he’ll be seen as inexperienced, and not ready for presidency. But there are benefits, too.
“On the other hand, a positive phenomenon is that his name isn’t Le Pen, and so it could complete the de-demonization of the National Rally and ultimately sever the link with the history of the National Front and Jean-Marie Le Pen,” he said.
Olivier Costa, a director at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po, told Courthouse News that the ruling will likely have a dual effect; although it will mobilize extreme-right voters behind Le Pen — similar to Trump in the United States — it could scare off more moderate right-wing voters looking for someone not surrounded by controversy.
“They are still facing what we call the glass ceiling — they can get 30 or 35% in the first round [of the presidential elections], but then to reach 50% in the second round, they must succeed in attracting more moderate voters,” he said of the far-right party. “I think that it will have a negative effect on this electorate, who might want to rely on people who have a better reputation.”
Since the beginning of the trial, Le Pen has shifted the focus from her crimes to her political standing; she has been very vocal about the judges being out to ruin her career.
“Let’s be clear: no one is on trial for doing politics,” Bénédicte de Perthuis, the head judge of the case, said during the sentencing on Monday.