MANHATTAN (CN) — In simpler times, scandals could be fatal for political careers. But as Donald Trump’s reported affair with adult film star Stormy Daniels takes center stage at his Manhattan criminal trial, experts say that may no longer be the case.
“In a very partisan, polarized world, where people are angry at each other’s political teams, you see scandals mattering less in the grand scheme of things,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said in an interview with Courthouse News.
Rottinghaus has been researching the impact of scandals on political figures from 1972 to the present day. His research will be expanded into a book with Columbia University Press, expected to be released early next year.
In highly polarized times, “the easiest thing for voters to do is to say, ‘Well, that person’s not on my team,'” Rottinghaus said. “They assess the scandal [through] that lens.”
Rottinghaus is hardly the only expert making this assessment. Aaron Dusso, a political science professor at Indiana University, told Courthouse News that partisanship plays a big role in how the public is interpreting Trump’s ongoing trial in Manhattan.
“If you’re a Republican, you’re going to see it the way you want to see it,” said Dusso, whose work focuses primarily on the political psychology of electoral behavior. Likewise, “if you’re a Democrat, you’re going to see it the way you want to see it.”
Last week, a New York jury heard testimony from Daniels about her sexual encounter with Trump. The court also unearthed new details about the affair, which is central to the prosecution’s claims that the former president falsified documents to prevent the story from coming out ahead of the election.
In her testimony, Daniels said she met Trump during a celebrity golf tournament at Lake Tahoe and ended up in his hotel room. After Daniels went to the bathroom, she said she reemerged in the room to find Trump on the bed in his boxers.
“I wasn’t expecting someone to be there, especially minus a lot of clothing,” she said. “The next thing I know, I was on the bed.”
In an April poll from AP and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 35% of voters said they believed Trump acted illegally or unethically in the matter.
Still, of the people who think he did nothing wrong, a majority said Trump would still be fit for office even if he was found guilty.
Gregory Germain, a law professor at Syracuse University, said the allegations against Trump in this case — including accusations of an affair — don’t pack the same punch with voters as they might have in the past.
“I think 20 years ago, it would have had a tremendous impact,” Germain said. “I think the public just cares less about the sexual escapades of politicians than they did 20 years ago. We’ve had so many politicians that have had sex scandals that maybe they’ve lost some of their shock value.”
When it comes to Trump, Rottinghaus said that the former president’s ability to evade the negative impact of scandal could be attributed to fatigue among voters overwhelmed by the news cycle.
“Voters forget a lot about what happens in a presidential term, and the scandal themselves are not as memorable for voters,” Rottinghaus said. “The rapidity of the media cycle and the volume of political information means that voters are kind of collectively paying less attention to any one scandal.”
He added that the impact of Trump’s reported affair with Daniels may also be making less of a splash because voters already heard about it. Old information may not carry the same shock value it once did.
“This scandal is an old one, and old scandals don’t hit as strongly as new ones,” Rottinghaus said. “Despite the salaciousness of the allegations, it’s just the case that people already think they know about this and have moved onto the next outrage.”
For Dusso, the lack of a strong public reaction to Trump’s ongoing case in Manhattan may be attributed to the former president’s ability to evade the ramifications of scandal.
“He seems to be able to withstand pretty much every single thing that happens,” Dusso said. “This is completely out of left field when it comes to U.S. politics. It’s all unprecedented.”
Rottinghaus warned about the waning impact of scandals on public opinion.
“Scandals are like a canary in a coal mine,” he said. When people don’t care about them, “it gives us a sense that there’s something wrong either with the people we’ve elected or the rules that they live under.”
“To have scandals be less important means that there’s an accountability factor that doesn’t work anymore,” Rottinghaus added. “That’s a problem.”