MARSEILLE, France (CN) — French Prime Minister François Bayrou’s fragile “conclave” — the group of unions and political parties tasked with rethinking the nation’s controversial pension reforms — is on the brink of collapse. Unions are pulling out of discussions after Bayrou ruled out lowering the retirement age from 64 to 62, and politicians are accusing him of trickery in a debate that triggers impassioned feelings.
Pascal Cauchy, a history professor at the Institute of Political Studies at Sciences Po, told Courthouse News that the issue is particularly spiny in France.
“We’re in a confrontation that is not simply social, but also political and perhaps even, in France, an almost anthropological subject,” he said. “The question of retirement is not simply an age or a pension amount; it is also a whole history, and that’s maybe why this subject is very sensitive in France, whereas in other countries, things are sometimes simpler or less sensitive.”
Experts think the issue could even be the final political nail in the coffin for the prime minister.
Pierre Allorant, historian and political scientist at the University of Orléans, told Courthouse News, “In the coming days, I think that this conclave will collapse due to a lack of participants since, in the end, if there’s nothing to discuss there’s no point in coming.”
“The risk will be very high for Bayrou that the left and the National Rally will unite in a motion of censure to overthrow him before the summer,” Allorant said.
In January, one month after Bayrou was appointed as prime minister, he said everything would be on the table for retirement reforms, and nothing would be too “taboo” to negotiate. His openness kept the Socialists from uniting with the left to topple his fragile government.
So they were outraged when, on Sunday, Bayrou was interviewed on radio station France Inter. Asked whether he’d consider reducing the retirement age from 64 to 62, he responded with a straight “no.”
“When you don’t keep your commitments, you don’t deserve to remain prime minister,” Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the Socialist party, said on Thursday.
The retirement age in France is a sore subject for the population and politicians alike.
A report published last month projected that France’s pensions deficit will reach 15 billion euros ($16.2 billion) by 2035, and double that by 2037.
In 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron pushed through a bill reducing the retirement age from 64 to 62. The move sparked massive protests throughout the country, because of both substance and method; Macron used the controversial 49.3 measure to push the bill through parliament without a vote, a move largely viewed as undemocratic given the widespread opposition.
“It’s certain that the reform carried out by Emmanuel Macron at the start of his second term never caught on with public opinion, it was pushed through by force,” Allorant said. “All of Emmanuel Macron’s opponents, the left and also the far right, have made it their hobby horse.”
The retirement age in France is still lower than its European counterparts; in Germany and the U.K., state pensions kick in at 66 years old. The reforms were meant to reflect budget woes — the public deficit exceeded 6% of GDP in 2024, in violation of EU rules — and an aging population.
Cauchy explained that in France — like other European countries — the issue of retirement is linked to the industrial history of the country. Around the mid-19th century, the state and the Catholic church began to consider how they could support people who could no longer work.
The anchoring of retirement security in French society continued to evolve in the early 20th century, with the introduction of social insurance for illness, and the establishment of a pension system.
But there are key differences from other European models.
“There is one particularity: In 1941, we opted for national solidarity, meaning active workers paid contributions for those who were no longer working,” Cauchy said. “And this was going to be very different from other models, such as in Germany or other countries, where management was entrusted to both industrialists and social partners.”
Cauchy said retirement became a political and social issue that’s deeply rooted in the French tradition.
“I believe it’s a civilizational issue,” he said. “It’s not just a technical issue, a social issue, or a political issue — it’s a life issue.”
On Friday morning, Colette — who asked to be identified by her first name — was waiting for a meeting near Marseille’s Old Port. She has been happily retired for six years, and thinks the retirement age should be reduced back to 62.
“It’s very important for the French,” she told Courthouse News. “We work all of our lives and want to profit soon enough, before illnesses come.”
But the prospects for lowering the retirement age are looking increasingly bleak.
“Many people have accepted the sacrifices of stagnating wages, but with the thought that at least we’ll have a retirement to enjoy,” Allorant said. “Delaying, pushing back the retirement age to 64 … further increases discontent with the government.”