(CN) — Early polling of New Jersey voters shows former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who nearly beat incumbent Governor Phil Murphy in the Garden State’s 2021 gubernatorial race, emerging as an early primary favorite among Republicans in his third campaign for governor.
On the other side of the aisle, the majority of Democratic voters — 56% — remained undecided on their pick.
The Emerson College poll, released Thursday, shows Ciattarelli leading morning talk radio host Bill Spadea, 26%-13%. State Senator Jon Bramnick is polling at 4% and former State Senator Edward Durr at 2%, with just under half of Republican voters (47%) still undecided.
The majority of New Jersey Democratic voters were undecided during early polling, with only Representative Mikie Sherrill finding double-digit support (10%) from the party’s voters — just barely ahead of his primary opponents.
New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka each got 8% behind Sherrill, while Representative Josh Gottheimer and former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney are tied with 7% each.
With five months to go until primaries on June 10, observers shouldn’t read too deeply into current polling results, said Matthew Hale, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Affairs at Seton Hall University.
“These polls are simply about name ID,” Hale told Courthouse News on Thursday. “I’m not sure many people realize there is a race for governor yet. So, my guess is that the results are simply showing the last name people heard — not any kind of deep or thoughtful support.”
“New Jersey is a centrist state, not a deep-blue state,” Hale added. “It is clearly possible that a Republican could get elected governor” — though he thought final election results would depend “on which candidates win the primary.”
“If either party nominates someone on the edges, either far-right or far-left, I think they could be in trouble,” he explained.”If both parties nominate centrist candidates, Democrats will have the edge, but it could be close.”
The same poll also found President Donald Trump has a 48% favorable rating among New Jersey voters, while 46% held an unfavorable view and 6% were neutral.
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris beat Trump in the Garden State last year, 51.8% to 45.9%. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state with 57% of the vote to Trump’s 41%, while Hillary Clinton won New Jersey in 2016 with 55% to Trump’s 42%.
The polling also showed that a majority of New Jersey voters (57%) oppose the contentious New York City congestion pricing program that went into effect on Jan. 5, which charges vehicles entering Manhattan. Twenty-one percent support the toll, and 22% are unsure.
Congestion pricing has the highest opposition among voters in their 50s (62%) and 60s (73%). Republican (64%) and independent (66%) voters oppose congestion pricing more strongly than Democrats (48%).
Still, the polling suggests that congestion pricing is not a partisan issue for New Jersey residents, Hale told Courthouse News.
“As this poll showed, people in New Jersey hate congestion pricing,” he said. “The centrist Democrats in the field are fighting it just as hard if not harder than the Republicans.”
In other issues, 64% expressed support for a ban on cellphones in public K-12 school classrooms, while 20% oppose it, and 16% are neutral. Support for a ban on cellphones in public schools has the least support among voters under 30, at 48%, but steadily increases with age, with 81% of voters over 70 supporting such a ban.
The poll found that state lawmakers’ mandate for free kindergarten in all New Jersey public and charter schools is widely supported, with 74% supporting, 10% opposed and 16% neutral.
Free kindergarten has the highest support among Democrats, at 86%, compared to 67% of Republicans and 62% of independents who support it. While a majority of all age groups support free kindergarten, its support is highest among young voters. For voters under 40, 82% support it, while for those over age 70, that figure drops to 68%.
The poll found term-limited Governor Murphy holds a 44% favorable rating and 42% unfavorable rating. Twelve percent were neutral on the outgoing Democrat, while 2% said they had not heard of him.
During his first term, Murphy started phasing in a $15-an-hour minimum wage, greenlit recreational marijuana and funded community college with taxpayer dollars, bringing progressive policies to a governor’s mansion previously occupied by Republican Chris Christie.
Heading into the upcoming election, Ciattarelli’s campaign has focused on cutting taxes and growing the economy. On the campaign trail, he’s tried to paint Murphy as out of touch, criticiing his leadership during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Ciattarelli has been inconsistent his support for Trump — a fact his opponents in 2021 did not hold back from pointing it out. Back in 2015, Ciattarelli called Trump a “charlatan” and said he was an embarrassment to the nation and unfit to be president. Yet in 2016, Ciattarelli said he planned to vote for Trump to end gridlock in Washington.
He changed his tune again following the release of the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Trump in 2005 joked about women letting him sexually assault them. Ultimately, Ciattarelli said he did not vote for any presidential candidate in 2016.
Though he attended a “Stop the Steal” rally at the end of 2020, Ciattarelli later stated that Biden was the rightful winner of the presidential election. He also announced previously that he had sat out the 2016 elections.
Ciattarelli endorsed Trump in the 2024 elections, often applauding Trump’s opposition to offshore wind farms. Earlier this week, he celebrated the Republican president’s inauguration to a second term.