(CN) — In 2023 the planet roasted during the hottest year on record — but this year is set to be even hotter.
2024 will in all likelihood end up as the warmest year since record-keeping began, according to a Thursday report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a European Union space agency.
“After 10 months of 2024, it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record,” said Samantha Burgess, the Copernicus deputy director.
Scientists also expect this year to be the first with an average temperature 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than before the Industrial Revolution and the beginning of mass burning of fossil fuels. Scientists warn the planet will face staggering problems if the climate exceeds the 1.5 C threshold for long periods of time, as is likely even if carbon emissions fall drastically around the world.
“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records,” Burgess said.
Copernicus delivered the report just before world leaders, scientists, activists, policymakers and business leaders are set to descend on Azerbaijan for the yearly United Nations conference on climate change. At these summits, governments make pledges to tackle climate change, though their results often disappoint experts and climate activists.
Around the planet, efforts to rein in carbon emissions, the leading cause for global warming, are struggling; they suffered a major setback Tuesday with the reelection of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
During his first term, Trump sparked anger by dropping out of the Paris Agreement on climate. Under the 2015 deal, world governments pledged to work together to keep the planet from surpassing the 1.5 C threshold.
Experts expect Trump to sow deep discord by once again pulling the United States — historically the world’s leading greenhouse gas polluter — out of the Paris Agreement. He has called climate change a hoax. During the presidential campaign, he vowed to further ramp up fossil fuel production once he takes over the White House. Already under the Biden administration, the United States became the world’s leading producer of both crude oil and natural gas.
Globally, last month was the second-warmest October on record, only slightly cooler than October 2023, Copernicus said. On average, surface air temperature was 15.25 C (59.45 F), or 0.80 C (1.44 F) above average, the agency said.
Copernicus said October came in as the 15th month in a 16-month period when the average surface air temperature exceeded the 1.5 C mark. Over the past 12 months, the average global temperature measured 1.62 C (2.91 F) above the pre-industrial average, it added.
Courthouse News reporter Cain Burdeau is based in the European Union.
