WASHINGTON (CN) — A nail-biting election night Tuesday ended with a resounding victory for former President Donald Trump, who narrowly edged out Vice President Kamala Harris for the White House after locking down key support in Pennsylvania and dashing Democrats’ hopes of retaining the presidency.
It was a devastating night for Harris and Democrats, as the incumbent vice president underperformed President Joe Biden in crucial battleground states and Trump gained ground, including among Black and Latino voters. The election was all but decided Tuesday night, as the former president’s inroads in Pennsylvania, a must-win for Democrats, proved too steep an obstacle for Harris to overcome.
But while a Republican administration is all but guaranteed for January, potential seismic shifts in the makeup of Congress following Tuesday’s election are sure to help dictate the successes — or failures — of the incoming President Trump.
As of Wednesday morning, control of the House’s 218-seat majority remained up in the air. Though Democrats have been largely favored to retake the chamber, Republicans are far from routed.
But, if the House flips, it will be thanks to Democratic victories in a few key districts.
In Arizona, Democrat Amish Shah trailed incumbent Representative David Schweikert for the Grand Canyon State’s 1st Congressional District in the early hours Wednesday morning. Schweikert led Shah by less than 10,000 votes in the district, with just over half of precincts reporting. In Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, Democrat Kirsten Engel narrowly led incumbent Representative Juan Ciscomani Wednesday morning, with more than half of the vote already tallied.
Eugene Vindman, brother of retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel and vehement Trump critic Alexander Vindman, was also on track to chalk another Democratic victory in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District Wednesday morning. Vindman, himself a former U.S. Army officer, appeared poised to defeat Republican Derrick Anderson and retain Democratic control of a seat formerly held by Representative Abigail Spanberger.
Democrats scored another small victory as they held onto some competitive House seats, including Ohio’s 13th Congressional District, where incumbent Representative Emilia Sykes survived a challenge from Kevin Coughlin.
And New York Democrats also had a fairly balmy night. Representative Tom Suozzi, who stepped in earlier this year to fill a vacancy in the Empire State’s 3rd Congressional District left by the disgraced former Representative George Santos, successfully defended his title against former New York State Representative Mike LiPetri.
In New York’s 4th Congressional District, Laura Gillen appeared set to unseat incumbent Representative Anthony D’Esposito. It was the second matchup between the two candidates — D’Esposito narrowly defeated Gillen in the 2022 midterm elections, becoming the first Republican to represent the Long Island district since 1997. This time around, Gillen led D’Esposito by just around 6,000 votes Wednesday morning, with around 95% of votes counted.
A Democratic House, under the leadership of New York Representative Hakeem Jeffries, could prove to be a thorn in the president-elect’s side. House lawmakers could hold up Trump’s legislative agenda and undertake politically-damaging investigations or impeachment proceedings — actions which could be likely given Trump’s suggestion that he would quash Justice Department investigations into his handling of classified documents and attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
While a Democratic House may be small comfort for the party that has just relinquished control of the White House, there may still be some work to be done, said Wendy Schiller, professor of political science at Brown University.
Schuller told Courthouse News that House Democrats could pursue legislation aimed at shielding abortion rights and election security, issues sure to be top of mind in a second Trump administration. Democrats could also take action on other major policy topics, such as Supreme Court ethics reform.
“That’s a winning issue,” Schiller said, going so far as to project bipartisanship on court reform efforts. “I think Republicans are going to join on that one.”
Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a leading voice on court reform in Congress, told Courthouse News last month that a Democratic House could make large new strides in investigating ethical malfeasance and the high court and bringing subpoenas against major players in the yearlong controversy.
But any legislation that makes it through a Democratic House would have to contend with a Republican Senate. The GOP flipped the upper chamber, as expected, early Tuesday night. Republicans scored some major victories, unseating Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and Montana Senator Jon Tester. Republicans also appeared on track Wednesday morning to oust Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, cementing yet another four years of a deeply partisan Congress.
And despite Democratic inroads in the House, the prospect of Republicans maintaining control of the chamber and delivering a GOP governing trifecta remained very real Wednesday morning
While Republican control of Congress would be a boon under a second Trump administration, the president-elect will likely undertake many of his campaign promises via executive order, Schiller said.
“He’ll reinstate the Muslim travel ban, that’s an executive order,” she said. “He will do mass deportations, which will be challenged in court, but that will be by executive order. The only thing Congress can do is keep the government afloat, pass the debt ceiling and pass tax cuts.”
For Republicans in Congress, approving Trump’s tax plan would be the “single priority” under a trifecta, Schiller forecast. The GOP may also undertake an effort to do away with the Senate filibuster, which could clear the way for more radical legislation and remove an avenue for Democrats to block it.
“To me, the test of whether Republicans get rid of the filibuster in the Senate will be a national abortion ban,” said Schiller. She pointed out that some GOP lawmakers such as Maine Senator Susan Collins and Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who have previously been critical of a federal ban on abortion, may hesitate to sign onto an effort to kill the filibuster if it opens up such a possibility.
“You say, ‘well, we’re never going to do a national abortion ban, so vote to get rid of the filibuster,’” Schiller said. “I just don’t think Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are going to trust that.”
And opposition from those two lawmakers, she pointed out, would serve as political cover for other Senate Republicans wary of filibuster reform but unwilling to oppose the move publicly.
The possibility of a split government also poses some unique new challenges for lawmakers under the incoming Trump administration, Schiller said.
In the Senate, she forecast to Courthouse News, moderate Republicans such as Murkowski and Collins will once again become power players with the ability to make or break the conservative agenda.
“That’s going to be an interesting thing to watch, in terms of judicial nominations, any kind of Supreme Court nominations and also just legislating in general,” she said. “Will they serve to moderate whatever comes out of the Senate legislatively?”