SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — When the election returns started to roll in Tuesday, David McCuan looked for the margins separating California’s statewide ballot measures.
If the margin is between 2% and 4% by midday Nov. 6, it’s going to take some time before Californians will know whether the proposition passed or failed. In those cases, the vote is too close to know for certain, said McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University.
“California, generally, takes a little while,” he told Courthouse News of the time needed to complete the vote tally.
However, a 5% or greater split between the “yes” and “no” votes is typically too much for one side to make up the difference.
With over 55% of the vote tallied Tuesday night, 70.6% of voters said yes to Proposition 36.
Proposition 36 would increase penalties for certain drug and property crimes. It’s a reversal of criminal justice reforms implemented by Proposition 47 a decade ago.
One of 10 statewide propositions on the Nov. 5 ballot, it’s garnered many of the headlines this election season and drawn much of the attention, including from state legislators.
Democrats in the Legislature passed a crime bill package they said is more comprehensive than Proposition 36 that also keeps criminal justice reforms in place. Republicans point to viral videos of people brazenly stealing items from stores, arguing Proposition 47 has only increased crime.
Governor Gavin Newsom, who’s spoken against Proposition 36, heralded a proposed ballot measure over the summer that would have complemented the crime bill package. It was proposed and withdrawn within days.
According to a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Friday, 60% of likely voters support Proposition 36, compared to 25% opposed. It’s little change from a late September poll on the measure, which also saw support at 60% and opposition at 21%.
“It certainly looks like it’s well on its way to passage,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll, in a Friday panel discussion.
While Proposition 36 led state lawmakers to draw sharp lines in the battle over it, the big money hasn’t followed. As of Oct. 29, the campaign in support of the measure had garnered $16,201,933. The campaign against had raised $7,688,260.
Proposition 33, which would prohibit the state from restricting a local jurisdiction’s ability to implement, maintain or expand rent control, has raised $47,694,883 from supporters. However, opponents have given $124,833,309.
That measure appeared headed to failure, with 62.4% of voters saying no.
“Those are the ones that have the most advertising,” Louis DeSipio, professor of political science and Chicano/Latino studies at UC Irvine, told Courthouse News.
The recent Berkeley poll also examined Proposition 33, finding 35% support and 45% opposition for it.
An organization sponsored by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation is the major contributor to the Proposition 33 rent control “yes” campaign, giving over $46 million. Michael Weinstein, called a “slumlord” by some, is the president of the foundation.
The rent control measure is linked to Proposition 34, though not clearly for voters.
Proposition 34 would require certain health care providers to spend 98% of their revenue from federal discount prescription drug programs on patient care. An AIDS Healthcare Foundation attorney has argued in court documents that the organization is the only one that would be affected.
Supporters have donated over $43 million, while opponents raised almost $16 million.
“Counter-initiatives typically go down together,” McCuan opined on the fates of Propositions 33 and 34.
Proposition 34 remained close Tuesday night, with 51% in favor and 49% against.
Voters also will decide measures on same-sex marriage, the vote threshold for certain bond issuances and a statewide minimum wage.
The Berkeley poll found that Proposition 32 — which would raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 an hour for all workers by 2026 — had 47% support and 39% opposition.
DiCamillo — whose poll examined the presidential and U.S. Senate races, as well as three statewide propositions — said the measure is too close to call and will hinge on turnout.
Tuesday’s vote appeared to bear that out, with 48.2% in favor and 51.8% against late in the evening.
Another measure that’s drawn campaign dollars is Proposition 35, which garnered just over $54 million in support. There’s no formal opposition. It would make an existing tax on managed health care insurance plans permanent. The tax currently expires in 2027.
Proposition 35 on Tuesday was passing with 67.5% of the vote.
With 10 statewide measures on the ballot, not all of them have gotten the same level of attention or money.
Proposition 3, which would enshrine same-sex marriage in the state constitution, has drawn about $3.6 million in campaign dollars supporting it and nothing in opposition. That’s a far cry from the over $80 million the issue drew when Proposition 8, prohibiting same-sex marriage in California, passed in 2008.
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Proposition 8 on a technicality in 2013.
Proposition 3 appeared likely to pass with 62.6% of the vote.
Proposition 6 would prohibit mandatory involuntary servitude for prison inmates. They could choose to work, though they couldn’t be forced. Late Tuesday, 54.4% of voters had rejected the initiative.
The remaining measures relate to issuing bonds or would change the threshold needed to pass a bond proposition:
• Proposition 2 would approve $10 billion in bonds for repairing, upgrading and building facilities for kindergarten through 12th grade schools and community colleges. It appeared likely to pass late Tuesday, as did Proposition 4, would approve $10 billion in bonds for projects addressing climate risks and impacts, including wildfire prevention, agriculture and clean energy.
• Proposition 5 would reduce the vote threshold from two-thirds to 55%, but only for bond measures targeting affordable housing or public infrastructure projects. It appeared headed for defeat late Tuesday.